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【书评】投资的怪圈: 成为洞察人性的聪明投资者

摘要: 彩票平台 了解你的大脑,在思考和感觉之间找到决策平衡点。

作者: 彩票平台贾森·茨威格(JasonZweig)《华尔街日报》专栏作家

出版社: 中信出版社

出版时间: 2020年5月

yixiangdui 250 duomingjinrongfenxishidediaochaxianshi,chaoguo 91% derenrenwei,zaipingguyixiangtouzishi, zuizhongyaoderenwushibashishizhenglichengyigeyinrenzhumudegushi。

彩票平台touzizuhejinglimentaotaobujueditanlunzhetamenduimouzhigupiaodezhijueshifouzhengque,zhuanyejiaoyiyuanmenjingchanggenjuzijidezhijuemeitiankaizhanshushiyimeiyuandejiaoyi。erjubaodao,quanqiulingxiandeduichongjijinguanlizheqiaozhi·suoluosi(george soros)shenzhicengjingzaibeibutengtongshikaolvguopaoshoushouzhongdegupiao。

彩票平台maerkemu·geladeweierzai《zhayanzhijian: bujiasisuodejueduanli》yishuzhongxuancheng: “kuaisuzuochudejuedinghuoxuhejinxiaoshenwei、shensishulvzhihouzuochudejuedingyiyanghao。”geladeweiershiyiweijiechudezuojia,danshuodaotouzi,tadelundianshifeichangweixiande。

zaiheshidetiaojianxia,birujuecehuanjinghejueceguizejiandanerwendingshi,zhijuedequekeyicuishengjingrendejuecesuduhezhunquedepanduan。buxingdeshi,juecehuanjinghejueceguize(zhishaozaiduanqinei)kenengfeichangfuza,erqiefeichangbuwending。

biru,zhaiquanzaiyiduanshijianneibiaoxianlianghao,danniyimairu,tamendehuibaolvjiubiandehendi。zaibiru,nishoulidexinxingshichanggupiaoxingjijinduonianlaiyizhichuyukuisunzhuangtai,danzainimaichuzhihou,tadejiazhijiufanleyifan。

zaijinrongshichangdefengrenyuanli,weiyishiyongdeguizesihushimofeidinglv,jirenhekenengchucuodeshiqingdouhuichucuo。bujinruci,zheitiaoguizehaicunzaiyigemoguibandeniuquxianxiang,neijiushi,zheixiecuowuwangwangzainizuibuxiangchucuodeshihoujiezhongerzhi。

彩票平台geladeweierchengrencaipiaopingtaidezhijuejingchanghuiwudaocaipiaopingtai。zaigushiyinfadezuilingrentongkudezhuduofanfengxianxiangzhong,youyidianshizuixianeryijiande,jiniduiyixiangtouzipanduancuowudexinhaozhiyi,jiushinidezhijuerenweizijidepanduanshizhengquede。

彩票平台tongchangqingkuangxia,niyueshiquexinzijidezhijuehuijizijidailaijudahuibao,niyuekenengsunshigengduodeqian。zaiyigeyouzheixieguizeguanlideyouxizhong,ruguonisuozuodezhishizaizhayanzhijianzuojueding,neimenidetouzijieguojianghuihenzaogao。

直觉在投资中扮演着合理的角色,但它应该是从属性的,而不是主导性的。当然,你可以让你的直觉更好地为你工作,而无须仅仅依靠直觉来投资。

zuihaodecaiwujueceshiliyongnidanaodeshuangzhongyoushi,jizhijuehefenxi,huozheshuoganjuehesikao。jiasen·ciweigezai《touzideguaiquan: chengweidongcharenxingdecongmingtouzizhe》yishuzhongxiangnizhanshi,ruhezuidaxiandudiliyongzheiliangzhe。

renmenpubianrenwei,younaozhangguanganxingqingxu,zuonaozhangguanluojituili,zheizhongguandianbingfeiwanquancuowu,danshijiqingkuanggengweiweimiao。

虽然这两种思维很大程度上是在不同的领域进行的,但这种分工更多地存在于上下之间,而不是左右之间,即,反射系统和反思系统

fanshexitongzhuyaoweiyudanaopizhixiamian,caipiaopingtaidaduoshurenjiangqishiweidanaozhongfuzesikaodebufen,zaibianbiehezhuiqiucaipiaopingtairenweiyoujiazhidedongxi(birushiwu、yinliao、shehuidiwei、xingbie、jinqian)shifahuizhehexinzuoyong。

fanshexitong,“zaizuochudaduoshupanduanhejuedingshidouhuidatouzhen”。caipiaopingtaiyikaozhijueduicaipiaopingtaizhouweideshijiexingchengchubudelejie,zhiyoudangzhijuexitongwufanongqingyixieshiqingshi,caipiaopingtaidanaolimiandefenxixitongcaihuibeidiaodongqilai。zhengrudannier·kaniman(yigehuodenuobeierjingjixuejiangdexinlixuejia)suoshuo: “caipiaopingtaizhuyaoyunyongdeshifanshexitong。”

你的大脑除了主导感性和直觉情绪的反射系统,还有一股重要的平衡力量: 反思系统。如果说大脑的反射系统是默认系统,即默认首先动用直觉来解决问题,那么反思区域就可以说是“后备机制”,即进行分析思考的神经回路。

彩票平台ruguoyourenrangnishuochu 6853 lianxudijian 17 dechudeshuzi, nidezhijuehuiyipiankongbai。danguoyihuier,nihuiyouyishidifaxianzijizaisikao,6836,6819,6802……maxiu·libomanshuo: “zheizhongguochengconglaijiubushiduziqiaoranfashengde。nibujinzhidaota,erqienijuedezijikeyizhangkongta,shenzhinengyongyuyanshuochuqidongzheigeguochengdeyuanyin。”

dangnizhenzhengzaitouzishi,jibukenengxiang《xingjimihang》lineiweilengjinglixingdesibokeyiyangxingshi,yebukenengxiangneiweirongyiqingxushikongdemaikaoyiboshiyiyangxingshi,zheiliangleirendexinggedoubuqieheshiji。

人类大脑的反射系统和反思系统各有优缺点,因此,作为投资者,你面临的挑战就是如何让这两个系统更好地协同工作,从而在思考与感觉之间找到正确的平衡

xiamiandezhei10tiaojianyihuoxukeyibangzhunizhaodaoerzhedepinghengdian,chengweidongcharenxingdecongmingtouzizhe:

一、在是否信任某人或某公司的问题上,要相信你的直觉

彩票平台yiweimingjiaofuleide·kebulike(fred kobrick)degongtongjijinjinglicengcanjiaguoyichangyinrenzhumudeyanjiang,yanjiangzheshiyijiazhengkuaisuzengzhangdegongsideshouxizhixingguan。zhihou,kebulikezhaodaogaishouxizhixingguan,gaosutazijiduiqigongsideyinxiangyouduoshenke,takenenghuigoumaizheizhigupiao。

dangzheiweishouxizhixingguanshenchushouyutawoshoushi,kebulikezhuyidaozheiweigaoguandechenshanxiukoushangyinyoufenggedutedezimu。ranhou,kebulikekandaogongsiqitajiweijinglidechenshanxiuzishangyeyoutongyangdezimu。tahuiyishuo: “zaineiyishunjian,caipiaopingtaijiuzhidaocaipiaopingtaibuxiangzaimaizheizhigupiaole。zheixierenzaimaichenshandeshihoudoubuganzunzhongzijidexiangfa,feiyaoyubierenyimoyiyang,zenmehuibahuaixiaoxigaosulaobanni?”

当然,大多数投资者不太可能与首席执行官们面对面接触,所以你应该睁大你“感性的眼睛”来阅读两份可能揭示公司老板性格的文件,一份是年度委托书,另一份是公司年度报告中的董事长致股东的信

weituoshuhuirangnilejiejinglirendexinchoushuiping,yijitamenshifoucunzairangnigandaobuandeliyichongtu。dongshizhangdexinjiangbiaomingqishifoubugongpingdibashichangxingqingdehaozhuanguigongyuziji(qishishichangxingqingbingbuzaitadekongzhifanweizhinei),yijishifoubacuowujuecedezerentuijitaren(shijishangzheixiezerenkenengzaiqizishen)。

彩票平台ruguodongshizhangzaixinzhongzhishichuixugongsiweilaijiangruhexingwangfada,quehushilegongsimuqiandejiongjing,neimezheishiyigezhidedanyoudejixiang。

彩票平台luobin·huojiasishuo: “ruguoniyikaishijiuyouyizhongbuhaodeganjue,neijiubanideqingxudangzuoshuju,zhiyishiniyinggaikaolvtuichijuecedexinhao。”

无论何时,当你面对面地判断一个人的性格时,依靠直觉可以让你避免“过于冷静理性”。

biru,ruguonixuanzeyiweigupiaojingjirenhuolicaiguihuashilaibangniguanlicaiwu,neimezhuyaogenjucirendezhuanyezililaizuoxuanzekenengshicuowude。xuduotouzizhehenrongyibeijianlishangmianchongchidetouxiannongdeyanhualiaoluan。jinpingxuelihuozhuanyezigejiuxuanzecaiwuguwen,kenenghuirangnizhaodaoyiweijishushangyounengliqueyunihebulai,erqiezaishichangzouxiangjiduanshiwufabangzhuniguanliqingxuderen。

yinci,niyinggaishouxianyanjiumeigehouxuanrendeshenfenbeijing,zheijiangyouzhuyuquedinghouxuanrenshifoucengyinyuqitatouzizhejinxingbugongpingjiaoyiershoudaojianguanjigoudechufa。yidannixuandinglezhishaoliangmingjunwubuguangcailishidehouxuanren,neimenijiukeyibameigerendejiaoyubeijingheqitazilikaolvjinqu,ruguonidezhijuegaosuninagerengenggaoshang,gengqihenidegexing,neimejiuxuanzezheigeren。

二、要知道反射系统什么时候会占据上风

jijintouzizhezaimaimaitedingxingyedejijinshi,wangwanghuipeidejingguang,zheibingbuqiguai。fenxizhenggexingyexuyaojinxingdaliangdefansiheyanjiu,youyushushijiagongsitigonggezhongxianghujingzhengdechanpinhecaipiaopingtai,hennanduizhenggexingyeweilaideyinglizhuangkuangzuochukeguanyuce。

dannidefanshexitonghuijieshoudaogengjiandandexinxi,biru,“youjiazhengzaibiaosheng”huozhe “hulianwangzhengzaigaibianshijie”。zheihenrongyifensannidezhuyili,shiniwufakaizhangengjiaxiangxidefenxi。

xinlixuejiabaoluo·siluoweiqijinggaoshuo,meidangzheizhongxingfenmimanzaikongqizhongshi,fanshexitongjiuhuizhanjushangfeng,fansixitongjiuhennanfahuizuoyong,nijiuwufajinxingshenrusikaohefenxi。

彩票平台shenmelingrenjidong,shenmenengchanshengzuishengdongdehuamian,nideganjuejiushinizuirongyijieshoutamen。ruguoyourenduinishuoyixieguanyunamijishudehaohua,biru“nizhidao,zheixiexiaojiqikeyichanshengjudadelirun”,neimenihenkenengqingxiangyumairuyunamijishuxiangguandegupiao。

raner,dangdaduoshurenyilaizheizhongfanshexingsiweishi,zuizhonghuimengshoujuesunshi,erbushihuodejuelirun。1999 nianhe 2000 nian,jiuzaikejixingyedefenghouhuibaohuifeiyanmiezhiqian,yiwofengditouzikejixingyejijindetouzizhesunshilezhishao 300 yimeiyuan。

dangjinrongshichangbolanbujingshi,fansixitongdepanduanbifanshexitongdezhijuegengrongyizhanshangfeng。danshi,dangniushidailaigaodejingrendehuibao,huozhedangxiongshizaochenglingrenjusangdesunshishi,fanshexitongjiuzhanleshangfeng。yinci,sansierhouxingbiandepoqieerzhongyao。

三、多问自己一个问题

sansierhouxingdeyigefangfashizhidingyigechengxulaiquebaoniwendewentishizhengquede。

彩票平台zhengrudannier·kanimansuoyan,renmenzaimouxieshihoumianduiyigekunnandewentishi,huixuanzehuidayigegengjiandandewenti。zheishiyinweifanshexitongtaoyanbuquedingxing,tahuihenkuaijiangwentizhongxinzuzhichengyiyulijiehehuidadewenti。

biru,miandui“zheizhigupiaohuijixushangzhangma?”zheiyangyigenanyihuidadewenti,xuduotouzizhewangwanghuicankaozuijindejiagezoushitu。ruguoqushixianxiangshangqingxie,neimetamenlijihuida“shi”,ermeiyouyishidaotamendefanshexitongqipianletamen,yinyoutamenhuidaleyigewanquanbutongdewenti。

qushituxianshideqishishiyigejiandandeduodewenti: “zheizhigupiaozuijinyizhizaishangzhangma?”kanimanshuo: “zaizheizhongqingkuangxia,renmenbuhuiduitamenxiangyaohuidadewentigandaokunhuo,tamenzhishimeiyouzhuyidaozijiqishishizaihuidayigebutongdewenti。”

彩票平台zaizheizhongqingkuangxia,nikeyiduowenzijiyigewenti,biru,“caipiaopingtairuhezhidao?”huozhe“zhengjushishenme?”huozhe“caipiaopingtaixuyaogengduodexinxima?”zheixiezhuiwenhuiposhinizhuyidaonidefanshexitonghuidalecuowudewenti。

zhijiagedaxuedexinlixuejiaxikaiyuanyoulingyigejianyi: “ruguozheizhongqingkuangfashengzaiqitarenshenshang,tamenxiangnizhengqiujianyi,nihuigaosutamenyaozuoshenme?caipiaopingtaijingchangzheiyangzuojueding: bazijifangdaobierendeweizhishang。”xikaiyuandejianyitebieyouyong,yinweiyidannixiangxiangzijizhengzaijibierentijianyi,niyekeyixiangxiangneigerenzaixiangnishiya: “niquedingma?nizenmezhidao?”

四、不要仅仅证实一种说法,而要先试着去证伪

正如彩票平台所看到的,反射系统认为,证明一个论断的最好方法是不断寻找更多的证据来证明它的正确性。但要更加确定它是正确的,唯一的方法是更努力地寻找证据去证伪。

jijinjinglijingchanghuishuo: “renhejiaomairujiaxiadie 15% degupiao,caipiaopingtaidounengrangqizengzhizhihouzaimaichu。”zuoweizhengju,tamenzhanshiletamensuochiyougupiaodebiaoxian。xiangfan,niyinggaiyaoqiuchakanyishouchugupiaodehouxuhuibao,zheishipanduanjijinjinglishifouzhendeyinggaimaichutamendeweiyifangfa。

彩票平台tongyang,dangyijiatouzizixungongsichuixushuozijitongguojiegubiaoxianbujiadejijinjinglierhuodelegenggaodehuibaoshi,nikeyixunwenneixiejinglizaizaodaojieguzhihoudeyejishuju。zhiyoutongguoguanchazheixieweiguanchadaodejieguo,nicainengzhenzhengjianyanzheixierendeshuofa。(lingrengangadeshi,zheixiezhuanjiazijiconglaimeiyoufenxiguozheixiezhengju!)

五、用常识征服你的直觉

yibanlaishuo,shijuehetingjuehuijihuonidefanshexitong,erwenziheshuzizehuijihuonidefansixitong。

彩票平台zheijiushiweishenmegupiaojingjigongsihebaoxiangongsihuizaiqizhizuodeguanggaozhongzhanshiyixiefuyoumeilideren,tamenqianzhejinguangshanshandeliequanmanbuzaijinhuangsedeshatanshang。zheizhongqingjinghuizainidefanshexitongzhongjiqiqiangliedeshushiganheanquangan。

彩票平台zheiyeshiweishenmejijingongsixihuanbadaliangshujuhexiantiaoduijichenggaoshandexingzhuang,yicilaizhanshiqitouzizuhedeyeji。zheixietubiaoxianshideshichushitouzisuizheshijiandetuiyierzengzhang,zuizhongleijichengyigeximalayashanshidecaifugaofeng,congerchanshengleqiangliedeshijuechongji。

renleitianshengjiuduiyundonggandaoxingfen。dangyong“pansheng”huo“tiaozhang”dengfuyoudonggandecierbushiyong“yousuoshangzhang”dengzhongxingcihuilaigaikuogushihuodongshi,touzizhegengqingxiangyuyujigushijiangjixushangzhang。yixiejuyoudonggandexiucihuidaozhicaipiaopingtaidedanaochanshengshichangkendinghui“dazhangyibo”deyuqi。

彩票平台yinyudeqingganliliangbiaoming,niyongyuanbuyinggaibeidongdijieshoubierenjinidebaozhuanghaodexinxi。xiangfan,niyaoquebaoyongjizhongbutongdefangshidakaizheizhongxinxidebaozhuang。

dangjingjirenhuolicaiguihuashibayizhangsecaixianyandetubiaofangzaizhuozishangshi, niyaowenzheiyangdewenti: ruguoyibutongde、gengzhangdeshijianduanlaihengliangzheibitouzi,tahuishishenmeyangzi?zheizhigupiaohuojijinyuqitaleisitouzijishichangzhishudengkeguanjizhunxiangbibiaoxianruhe?genjutaguoqudeyejijilu,xiangzheiyangdetouzishenmeshihouhuibiaoxianbujia?guoqudeyejibingbunengyuceweilai,neimeruguoanzhaonianfeiheshuihouhuibaodengzhishaotongyangzhongyaodebiaozhunquhengliang,zheizhongtouzidebiaoxianruheni?

六、只有傻瓜才会去做没有原则的投资

dangweidadetouzifenxishibenjieming·geleiemu(benjamin graham)beiwenjiruhechengweiyigechenggongdetouzizheshi,tahuidashuo: “renmenbuxuyaofeifandedongchalihuozhihui,zuixuyaodeshicaiqujiandandeyuanze,bingjianchizunshouzheixieyuanze。”

caipiaopingtaizaibenshufuluzhongliechule 10 tiaojibendetouziguize。zhei“shijie”deshouzimuzhenghaoshi think twice(sansierhouxing)。dangshichangshangdemouzhongqingkuangkenengdaozhinisangshilizhishi,niyaoyizhizhuzijidechongdong。zaizuorenhetouzijuecezhiqian,yijunijizijizhidingdeyuanzexingshi,zheiyangkeyifangzhizijibeiwuduancaicejishichangduanqibodongzuoyou。

七、学会推迟决策

dangniqingxugaozhangshi,buyaojiyuzuojuece,xianxiuxiyixia,buranyihoukenenghuihouhui。

因此,你要警惕自己一时情绪波动的影响,否则你可能永远无法实现财务稳定。诺伯特·施瓦茨发出警告: “不要急于做出重要决策,留到第二天再说。”他不是在重复陈词滥调,他说的是科学研究证实的有趣的大智慧。如果你仔细考虑一下,而不是冲动行事,你几乎总能做出更好的投资决策。

彩票平台maxiu·libomanshuo,lingyizhongxuanzeshi“xiangneixieburentongniguandianderenzhengqiudierzhongyijian”。shizhebanidetouzixiangfagaosuneixiehenlejieni,queyoubutongyiniguandianderen。suirannidepeiouzaizheifangmiantingqilaihenlixiang,danzuijiarenxuanshiyigehaodeshangyehuoban,erbushinidelangmanbanlv。

zhideguanzhudeshi,meiguoxuduozuijuchuangxinli、zuichenggongdegongsidoushiyoulianggenenggouxianghuzhihengbicixiangfaderenlingdaode。

比如,伯克希尔–哈撒韦公司有沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格,雅虎公司有戴维·费罗和杨致远,谷歌公司有拉里·佩奇和谢尔盖·布林。如果你有一个既能令你推心置腹又对你吹毛求疵的朋友,那么要养成一个习惯,在做任何决定之前,把你的投资理念跟这位朋友讲一讲,请他帮忙把关。

zuihouyigefangfashishizhetongguoshentiyundongquyingxiangnidexiangfa。shiwacijieshishuo: “nizaiyigeshentilisikao,nideshentifanyingyunideshenjinghuodongxianghuzuoyong。”zheisuirantingqilaihenqiguai,danbuwudaoli。

彩票平台biru,ruguonituikaimianqiandejianyingwuti,jiukeyibangzhunizaizuojuedingshiduoyixiesikao,shaoyixieqingxubodong。ruguonituikaidiannaohuoshuzhuo,jiukeyirangzijishaoshouyixiegerenqingxudeyingxiang。

jiexialai,nikeyiyongzheigejiangyingdedongzuolaitixingziji,zaizuojuecedeshihou,jideyaosansierhouxing,keyicankaobenshufuluzhongliechude 10 tiaojibentouziguize。nishenzhikeyizaicaiqurenheshichangcaozuozhiqian,yongzhangshangdiannaohuoshoujizidongjizijifasongtishi。

八、当市场对你眨眼时,你要抓住稍纵即逝的机遇

ruguoyizhigupiaoyinweihuaixiaoxierzaoshouzhongcuo,takenenghuiyongjiuxiadie,yekenengzhishizanshifanyingguodu,wanxieshihoujiuhuifandanhuilai。tiqianzuohaotouzigongke,nijiukeyisuishichujile。ruguonishiyigerenzhendegupiaotouzizhe,niyinggaigoumainisuolejiedegongsidegupiao,ruguozheixiegupiaoturanbiandebianyile,neijiumairu。

meishengjituandezhumingjijinjinglibier·milejiushizheimezuode。2004 nianxiatian,zhiyejiaoyugongsi(career education corp.)degujiacongyue 70 meiyuandiezhi 27 meiyuan,yuanyinshiyoubaodaochengjianguanjigouzhengzaidiaochagaigongsidezhangmuheshangyexingwei, touzizheduicigandaokonghuang,fenfenpaoshou。

danmilezhidao,zheisuojishuxuexiaoyunyinggongsinenggouhuodefeichangfenghoudelirun,tajuedezheizhongqingkuanghenkenenghuijixuxiaqu。yinci,dangshichang“zhayan”shi,milezhuazhulejihui,yidijiacongjinghuangshicuodemaijiashouzhongmairule 200 wangu。(dao 2004 niandi,gaigupiaoyijingjiaoxiajikonghuangshidedidianshangzhanglejin 50%。)

tiqianzuogongkenengrangnizaiqitatouzizhejinghuangpaoshoushi,jishizhuazhushaozongjishidejiyu。wolun·bafeitemeiniandouhuiyueduanhaisi–buxigongsidenianbao,yibianshuxizheijiagongsi,yibiannaixindidengdaigujiabiandezugoubianyishichushou。zuizhong,zai 2005 nianchu,gaigongsigujiaxiadie,dangshiyijingduigaigongsifeichangshuxidebafeiteqianggouleanhaisi–buxidedalianggufen。

九、股票只有价格,而企业有价值

congduanqilaikan,zhiyaoyourenxiangmaijinhuomaichugupiao,huozhezhiyaoyouxinwenfasheng,gupiaojiagejiuhuifashengbianhua。youshi,xiaoxijianzhihuangtangkexiao。

biru,1997 nian 10 yue 1 ri,shitongxuanbushougou mci tongxingongsi(gupiaodaima mcic),jieguo"dazhonggongtongjijingongsitouzizhe”(gupiaodaima mci)degujiashangzhangle 2.4%,jiaoyiliangbiaoshengdaolepingshizhengchangjiaoyiliangde 11 bei。touzizhezhisuoyijiyumairudazhonggongtongjijindegupiao,shiyinweitamengaocuolemingcheng,wuyiweitahuibeishitonggongsishougou,renweiqigujiajianghuishangzhang。danzaizheichanghunxiaomingchengdenaojuzhong,dazhonggongtongjijindegujiaqueshibiaoshengle。

长远来看,企业是股票的内在基础彩票平台,股票只是企业在市场上的交换媒介,没有自己的生命。如果哪项业务变得更具长期赢利性,那么它将变得更有价值,其对应的股票价格也会走高。股票价格在一个交易日内变化上千次并不罕见,但在真实的商业世界中,企业价值在一天之内基本是稳定的。

彩票平台qiyejiazhisuiranhuisuizheshijiantuiyierbianhua,danbushiyizhizaibian。gupiaojiuxiangtianqiyiyang,jihubujianduandi、haowuyujingdibianlaibianqu。qiyejiuxiangqihouyiyang,qijiazhibianhuagengjiahuanmanqiekeyuce。congduanqilaikan,tianqiyinqicaipiaopingtaideguanzhu,qiesihujuedinglehuanjing,dancongzhangqilaikan,zhenzhengzhongyaodeshiqihou。

suoyouzheixiebianhuadoukenengfensanrendezhuyili,yizhibafeitecengshuo: “caipiaopingtaizongshixihuanzaibuzhidaojiagedeqingkuangxiayanjiutouzi,yinweiruguonikandaolejiage,tajiuhuizidongduinichanshengyixieyingxiang。”

因此,一旦你对一家公司产生了兴趣,一个好办法就是最好先不去查看它的股价,而是花两周时间去研究一下这个公司。彩票平台在两周时间结束时,忽略股票价格,只关注企业价值本身,做出自己的评估。

bafeiteshuo,suoyouzheixieyanjiuqueshirangnihuidaoleyigehexinwenti: “caipiaopingtaidediyigewenti,yeshizuihouyigewenti,jicaipiaopingtaishifoulejiezheijiagongsi。caipiaopingtaishuodelejie,shizhicongjingjixuedejiaoduduitazaiweilaiwudaoshiniandefazhanzhuangkuangxingchengyigehelipanduan。ruguonizaihuidazheigejibenwentishigandaobushufu,nijiubuyinggaimaizheijiagongsidegupiao。”

十、考虑问题时,要着眼全面

nicongjingjigongsihuojijingongsikandaodecaiwubaobiao,wangwangshiweilecijinidanaodefanshexitong: tamenqiangdiaodeshimeibitouzideduanqijiagebianhua,erbushinidezongcaifuguimo。zheizhongfangfarangnidecaiwubaobiaoduqilaibuneimekuzao,youqishizaishichangshangxiabodongdeshihou。dantarangnigengyoukenengtingcongzhijue,jingchangdaozhigaomaidimai。

丹尼尔·卡尼曼警告说: “考虑一项决定时,看似最自然的方式往往不是最好的方式。”

彩票平台ruguonidecaiwuguwenhuojijingongsibunengbangniquanmianfenxinidecaiwubaobiao,nikeyizijizuo: yong excel huoleisideruanjianjianyigedianzibiaoge。

彩票平台zaimeigejidumo,shiyongxiaode、putongdeziti,shurunidemeiyixiangtouzidejiazhi。shiyong excel de“zidongqiuhe”laijisuannichiyoudesuoyougupiaodezongjine,yongcutizibiaochuzongshu。(ruguonibuhuiyong excel,youyizhangzhijiukeyile,yidingyaoyonggengda、gengxingmudeshuzijiluzongshu。)yaochakannidetouzizuhedebiaoxian,buyaozhuxingyuedumeiyigetiaomu。

xiangfan,bazheigejidudezongheyushangyijiduhuoyinian、sannianhewunianzhiqiandezonghejinxingbijiao。xianzainijiukeyihenrongyidikandaonisuochiyouderenyigupiaodedafubodongshifouduinidezhengtitouzizuhechanshenglezhongyaoyingxiang。

卡尼曼将这种刻意的比较称为“着眼全面”,这种比较需要动用你大脑的反思系统,以避免单笔投资的损失或收益促使你做出可能会后悔的行为(比如低价卖出或高价买入)。

wulunnishitouzigegu,haishizhizaishebaojihuahuoqitatuixiujihuazhongtouruyixiezijin,“zheyanquanmian”doujiangbangzhuniguanzhusuoyouzichandezhangqibiaoxianhewendingxing,erbushiguanzhugebiezichandeduanqibodong。

zheiyang,nihuibiandegengfuyou、genglengjing。

【taimeitizuozhejieshao: benwenlaizi《touzideguaiquan》dezuozhejiasen·ciweige。tabiyeyugelunbiyadaxue,cengshi《huobi》zazhigaojizhuangaoren,《shidai》zazhihecnnkezuozhuanlanzuojia,《fubusi》gongtongjijinlanmuzhubian。tashoubenjieming·geleiemuweituo,zhubian《congmingdetouzizhe(xiudingban)》,zheibenshubeibafeitefengwei“qijinweizhizuihaodetouzijuzhu”。

同时,他也是一位广受欢迎的演说家,演讲足迹遍布哈佛、斯坦福和牛津等名校以及美国个人投资者协会、阿斯本研究所、特许金融分析师协会、晨星投资协会等权威机构。他还经常受邀出任各大电视台或电台的特约评论员。
此外,他担任美国金融博物馆(隶属史密森学会)理事,《金融史》和《行为金融学》杂志编委会委员。】

《投资的怪圈》将会纳入钛媒体Pro版书库,敬请大家关注前沿书库的上新动态~每位Pro专业用户一年可以在书库中任意选择三本书,由钛媒体免费赠送哦~点击链接、登录,进入“前沿书库”选书: https://plymouthbuzz.com/pro/books 

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