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“妖股”美团

摘要: 美团其实是疫情受益股?这似乎与大众认知不符。

图片来源@视觉中国

tupianlaiyuan@shijuezhongguo

wen | biaowaibiaoli(id: ),zuozhe | zhouxiao(gaojiyanjiuyuan),bianji | reno,shujuzhichi | dongjianshujuyanjiuyuan

彩票平台cong2020q1caibaolaikan,meituanshituotuode“yiqingshouzaigu”。

彩票平台caibaoxianshi,meituanyingyeshourutongbixiahua13%,xiangbi2019q4tongbizengzhang42%,dierugudi。shouyiqingyingxiang,meituandaodianjiulvyewuzengsuxiahuayouweimingxian,congshangjidutongbizengzhang38%,dieluodaotongbixiahua31%。

lingwai,lianxusigejidutongbi100%zuoyouzengzhangdejinglirun,juranxiahuadao-10%。haoburongyiaodaoyinglidechuntian,yebeiyiqinghenhenpaileyibazhang。

而美团股价表现,却是另一番风景。

彩票平台q1caibaofabuqian,gongsigujialianlianpansheng,shizhizaichuangxingao,meigugujiada131.4gangbi。caibaofabudangtian(panhoufabu),gujiadazhang6.16%,yanranyifu“yiqingshouyigu”deyangzi。

彩票平台ershijishang,yiqingduimeituandeyingxiangshirouyankejiande。

shanghuguanmen,xiaoqufengbi,shenzhicanyinwaimaishouruzai2yuechuxiantongbixiahua70%qingxing,daodianjiulvzejibentingbai。

mingmingyewushouyiqingfumianyingxiang,gujiafandanliduquezheimeda,yizhongtouzirenjinghu “yaoliyaoqi,kanbudong!”

典型公司业绩&股价走势,背离而行

彩票平台jiuzheigewenti,caipiaopingtaijinxinglefenxi,shitutongguojingzhenggeju、shangyougongying、xiayouyonghudengcengmian,zhaochuzheibeihoudedaan。

竞争格局没有大的改变

彩票平台yiqingdebaofaturuqilai,jisuoyouduoduoshaoshaoyilaixianxiadeqiyeanxialezantingjian。

彩票平台bulunzhiqiandejingzhengduomejilie,huozhetoubuqiyeduomeqiangda,“zantingjian”deweilishiwubijudade。zheiyexuhuijijingzhengzhongjiaoruodeneiyifangchuanxidejihui,diaozhengsilu,shixianwandaochaoche。

zhishaoelemejiushizheiyangxiangde。

guoquliangnian,alizaidianshangdazhanzhongpiyuyingfupinduoduo,fanerjilemeituanjiasushentoudekongzi。genjutrustdatashuju,elemedeshichangfene(eleme+elemexingxuan)cong2018q1kaishi,cong40%zhujianxiajiangdaole33%。meituanfenesuizhitisheng,dao2019q2yijingdadao55.1%。

4月初疫情有所缓和,各个外卖平台也在逐渐恢复。根据美团2020Q1电话会议,截止3月底,外卖业务恢复了75%。一切看起来方兴未艾,也正是重新拉开竞争格局的时候。

yushi,zhifubaozhidingeleme,yiqiangyoulidefangshijielemeyinliu。

彩票平台raner,duiyu“guimojitianli”dewaimaixingyelaishuo,duanqi“zantingjian”sihuhennanbangzhu“dierming”elemewandaochaoche。

congquestmobilejichudeyuehuoshujukan,2yuefenyiqingduimeituandeyingxianggengda,meituanmautongbixiadie27%,elemexiadie24.4%。caipiaopingtairenwei,zheiyupingtaideguimodaxiaoyouguan,2yuemeituanmaudejueduizhiwei1.8yirenci,shieleme3421wanrende5.45bei。yiqingtufajiuxiangtianhuabantaxialaixianzazaigaogezitoushangyiyang,youyumeituanyonghutilianggengda,suoyixiajiangdefuduyehuigengda。

这种幅度在疫情到来时,表现在用户数的下跌中;而当疫情过去后,则意味着反弹力度更大。从数据来看,4月美团活跃用户数同比下跌6.8%,相比饿了么下跌10.8%,反弹力度要强一些

yewucengmiandeqingkuang,yefanyingdaocaiwushujudangzhong。

meituanwaimaiyewuq1tongbi-11%;eralidechuangxinyewu(haneleme、hema、dingding、tianmaojingling、aliwenxue、aliyinle)tongbiyeleisi,dadaole-8%。dangran,alixiahuafudugengxiaoyuanyinzaiyubaohanhema(yoy88%)、dingdingdengyiqingshouyiyewuyingxiang,ruguotichushouyiyewu,kenengelemexiahuagengda。

shijishang,chuxianzheiyizhuangkuang——elememeijianqigengdashuihuadeyuanyinzaiyu,jibianzhifubaorucidaliduyinliu,waimaishengyideshichangfeneshiyifenyilicongshangxiayoukouchulaide,zheibeihoubixuyouzugoudadegtvzuoweiyituo。

huanjuhuashuo,zhiyougtvzugouda,pingtaicaiyouzugoudeyijiaquanxiangshangyasuochengben;yezhengyinweigtvzugouda,pingtaishengtaihuixiyinyuelaiyueduodeshangjiaruzhu,“xiangchishenmedouyou”defengfuskuyenengliuzhuyonghu,congerpingtaizaixiayoutijiadekongjianyehuishaodayixie。

这种规模效应会随着平台体量的增大,越来越明显,从而越来越多地与“第二名”甩开差距。阿里也许在营销、折扣方面不差钱,但规模的差距,意味着后期生态对商户的吸引力不够大,那么用户也更多只能靠“红包”来买。

lingyifangmian,yiqingguohou,aliyupinduoduozaidianshangshichangzhongdejingzhengrenghuichixu。caipiaopingtaizai《jingdongyijibaoyuanchaoyuqi,weiheshichangquebumaizhang?》yiwenzhongfenxiguo,yiqingguohoudedianshangfusuzhong,youyupinleihexiaofeijiangjideyuanyin,alidefusuhuilaidegengwanyixie。suoyi,duialilaishuo,dianshangdabenyingyouxuduobuquedingyinsu,haibushijiangzhongxinzhuanyidaoelemedeshihou。

彩票平台suoyi,meituandejingzhenggejuhuoxuzaiweilaiyiduanshijianneibuhuijiaju。zhishaomuqian,caipiaopingtaihaimeikandaoalizhongmaeleme,huozheelemewandaochaochemeituandexinhao,danhaixuchixuzhuizong。

chulelaopaiduishoueleme,xinwanjiashunfengsihuyelaishixiongxiong。

liangzhouqian,shunfengtongchengzhengshishangxianxiaochengxu“fengshi”,rujuwaimai。yuelemexiangbi,shunfengkeyiyituoqizaikuaidixingyedeyoushi,pukaiwaimaiwangluode“tianfu”huigaoyixie。

彩票平台raner,“fengshi”zhudaqiyeyuangongdetuancanwaimai,yumeituanelemede“sanhu”waimaishijishangbushiyigesaidao。qiyetuancandeshichangjiaoyuchengduhaibugou,shiyipianrengxukaifade“lanhaishichang”。tuancanxiaofeipinlvyediyu“sanhu”,zheijiuyiweizheqizaipukaiguochengzhongguimohuadenandugengda。

bingqiegenjucaipiaopingtaideguancha,xuduobianlidian,ruhongqiliansuodengyedouzaitigongtuancan,“fengshi”haixuyuzheixie“xiaoshanghu”jingzhengweiwanquandakaideshichang。

彩票平台yinci“fengshi”kansizhichongmeituanelemeerlai,danshijiweilihuoxuyuanbicaipiaopingtaiyikaishirenweideyaoxiao。

从新老对手的竞争看来,美团2019年的外卖格局似乎在疫情之后没有发生太大变化。彩票平台并且随着用户、商家数的越来越多,美团的成本规模及长期逻辑明显。

huoxu,zheishishichangmeiyouyinweiyiqingyingxiangerkandiemeituandeyuanyinzhiyi。

商家供给端没有明显下滑

彩票平台caibaopiluqian,henduorenduimeituandeyuqishi,youyuwaimai,youqishidaodiancanyindexuqiuxiajiang,yidapishangjiakenengguanmenhuozhedaobi。zheiyangyilai,meituanpingtaishangdeshanghushuhuijianshao,“duokuaihaosheng”zhongde“duo”jiudadashoucuo,yonghuzhanxingjierhuoxuhuiyousuoxiajiang。

彩票平台raner,yuqibijingshiyuqi。

xianshizhong,meituanhuoyueshangjiashushijixiajiangbuduo。2020q1,huoyueshangjiashuwei610wan,shenzhitongbijingzengzhangle30wanjia。

彩票平台caipiaopingtairenwei,zheibeihoudeyuanyinhuoxuyousan:

①yiqingjiyulunyingxiangburuyuqiyanzhong

②xianxiashanghuzhuanzhanxianshang

彩票平台③pingtaitiliangyueda,qishengtaiyuexiyinshangjia

  • 疫情及舆论影响不如预期严重

反思预期,彩票平台似乎将疫情对外卖业务的影响放大了许多

xixixianglai,yiqingzai1yue20riqueding“renchuanren”,wuhan1yue23rifengcheng。xinguanbingduduiwaimaiyewudeyingxianggengduoshicong1yuedi,huozhe2yuechukaishide;bingqiegenjumeituanguanfangpilu,daosanyuedishi,waimaiyewuyijinghuifudaole75-80%。

彩票平台chunjieqijian,henduojiatingtuanju,dianwaimaishi,meidandekedanjiahuixiangbipingchanggenggaoyixie。

彩票平台ciwai,kedanjiadetishengyeyuanyuyiqingqijianshangjiajiegoudebianhua。pinpaishangjiashuliangtisheng,zhongxiaoshangjiazengsubujipinpaishangjia,meituande13.7yibiwaimaijiaoyizhong,gaokedanjiadejiaoyizhanbiqishishitishengde。

genju2020q1dianhuahuiyi: xuduodingjipinpaiheliansuocantingkaishiyucaipiaopingtaihezuo,erdapixiaoxingcantingzezaiciqijianyanzhangletingyeshijian。youqishi,neixiezhuanzhuyujiagemingandexueshengdecantingguanbile。ciwai,xiaofeizheyegengxihuancongpinpaicantingdingcan,yinweizaiciqijian,zheixiecantingbeirenweijuyougenghaodeshipinanquanheweishengbiaozhun。yinci,diyijidulaizipinpaicantingdegaojiazhidingdandegongxianxianzhuzengjia。

yiqingdejiaoyuxia,waimaixiangqitapinleideshentouyehuishidekedanjiatisheng。genjuq1dianhuahuiyi: zaiciqijian,yuelaiyueduodexiaofeizhekaishizaicaipiaopingtaidepingtaishangdinggoufeishipinleibiedeshangpin。tamenshiyongcaipiaopingtaidepingtaigoumaijihusuoyoudongxi,baokuoyaopin、xianhuadeng。

彩票平台zheixieyingxiangdouhenmingxiandibiaoxianzaicaibaoshujuzhong,2019q4zhiqian,canyinwaimaidekedanjiayizhizai42-45yuan/danzhijianpaihuai,2020q1kedanjiamingxianxunsuzengzhangdaole52yuan。

meituanhuoxuhuizaiciqijiantigaowaimaixiaoge、houqinrenyuan、pingtaiweihurenyuandefulidaiyu,danzhiyaogongzishangzhangfuduxiaoyukedanjiashangzhangfudu,meidandeyunyingxiaolvhuozhelvyuexiaolvzaizheigeteshujieduanjiushitishengde。

彩票平台dangran,zheiyangteshuqijiandexiaolvtisheng,duiyingdeshijiangdidezongdanliang,bingqiehouzheweizhuyaomaodun。suoyicongzhengtijiaodukan,waimaiyewudeshourutongbishixiahuade,danzheigeyinsuhuirangyewudexiahuachengduhaoyuyuqi。

zheigedaoliduishangjialaishuoyeyiyang,suirandianwaimaiderenshaole,danmeiyidandejiagetigaole,shangjiadekangyanenglihuibicaipiaopingtaiyikaishiyuqideshaoweihaoyidian。

彩票平台lingyifangmian,siyuechuguangdongbufenshangjiakongsumeituanbipoqi“erxuanyi”,jibenjiuzaiciqijianjingyingjiannandeshangjiaposhangyipenlengshui。

shijianbaochuhou,shichangshangchuxianleyibufenshangjiadizhimeituandezixun,youtouzirendanxinzheihuidaozhishangjiashuliangdexiajiang,jineryingxiangpingtaitixi。raner,tongguoshujucaipiaopingtaifaxianzheigefumianyulunshijiansihuduimeituandeyingxiangburuxiangxiangzhongneimeyanzhong。

彩票平台zheihuoxushiyinweimeituanfangmianjinxingletuoshandechuli;youhuoxushiyinwei,meituandetiliangxia,pingtaishengtaiduishangjiayouzhejidadexiyinli,dabufenshangjiajibianxinlibugaoxing,queyetuiwuketui。

  • 线下商户转战线上

yiqingqijian,xuduoyinweigelizhengceerchichiwufakaimenyingyedeshangjia,duoduoshaoshaoweishengcunkaishizhuanzhanxianshang,zuoqiwaimaishengyi。biruxibei、wangshunge、quanjudedenggengzhuzhongjuhuifenweidecanyin,doujiangzhongxinfangzailewaimaishang。

彩票平台genju2020q1dianhuahuiyi: zaigongyingduan,yuelaiyueduodepinpaiheliansuocantingjiakuaixiangzaixianqudaoqianyi。

xianjinliushuixiangduijiaoda、kangyanengligengqiangdedapinpaicanyindouzhuanzhanxianshang,jiugengbuyongtibianbuchengshimeigejiaoluodezhongxiaocanguanle。

彩票平台dianhuahuiyizhongtidao: zhongxiaoxingcantingyezainuligaishanqizaixianyunying,tigaoqicaipiaopingtaizhiliang。tamenzhengzaijijiyucaipiaopingtaijinmihezuo,yinweizaiciqijianwaimaijiangchengweitamendezhuyaoshourulaiyuan。zheijiakuailegongjiduandezhilianggaijin。

彩票平台lingyifangmian,zheihuoxuyehuishicanyinwaimaihuashentoulvtishengdeyigeqiji。zhangqilaikan,zheixieshanghuzaiciqijianchangdaoletiantou,huoxuhuizhangqiliuxialai。zhengrucaipiaopingtaiqianmianyizhiqiangdiaode,shanghushudezengjiashizhishangyouliyupingtaishengtaideyouhua,yenengxiyingengduoyonghu,xingchengliangxingxunhuan。

彩票平台bingqiegengzhongyaodeshi,xinguanbingduduishangjiajiegoudediaojie,huoxunenggouchixuxiaqu,erzheiqishizhengzhongmeituanxiahuai。

tongyanggenjudianhuahuiyi: jiezhi4yuexiaxun,caipiaopingtaiyijingkandao,baokuoxinshangjiazainei,huoyuewaimaishangjiadeshuliangyiwanquanhuifu,youqishipinpaihegaopinzhicantingdeshuliangjixuzengjia,shicaipiaopingtainenggoujinyibukuodagaoduanxuanze,weiguoqujigeyuedehuifutigongzhicheng。

结构变化,显然是利于美团供应端的丰富,提高平台长期价值。 

  • 平台体量越大,生态越吸引商家

qishimeituan、elemedeshengyihejingdong、weipinhuihenxiang。

pingtaiguimoyueda,yiweizheqiyepukaidexiaoshouwangluoyueda,nengfugaidaodeyonghuyueduo,congertigongjiyonghudecaipiaopingtaiyehuiyuehao。

youyucaipiaopingtaihao,yonghuzhandujiuhuitigao。naliyoumaijia,nalijiuhuijujimaijia,youcipingtaiduishangjiadexiyinliyeyueqiang。

fanguolaishuo,zhengyinweishanghushuliangdetisheng,yonghuzaidianwaimaishi“guang”deshijianyuelaiyuezhang,zhenggepingtaideshengtaiyuelaiyuehuoyue,yenengjinyibucujintiliangdeshangsheng。

erzaiyiqingqijian,shangjiashuliangdejianshaofuduhaoyuyuqi,yeshiyinweiyonghuyoudianbei“waimai”zhanzhule,xuqiuxiahuadefuduhuijianhuanyixie。

用户有点离不开外卖

yiqingqijian,niyoumeiyoufaxian,“waimai”yuelaiyuechengweirichangshenghuodeyibufen。jujiagelidehoubanduan,naicha、zhaji、chuanchuanpinfandengshangresou,dajiasihuyoudianbunaifan“meiyouwaimaiderizi”le。

一方面是整个市场对用户的教育,另一方面是头部企业能提供更全品类、更好的彩票平台。所以,从数据看来,美团的用户粘性在不断提升

彩票平台genjuquestmobilejichudeshuju,caipiaopingtaitongguodau/maulaicesuanmeituandeyonghuzhandu(yinweizheidaibiaoyuehuoyueyonghuzhongyouduoshaoyeshirihuoyueyonghu)。keyifaxian,2019nianyilai,meituandeyonghuzhandumingxiantisheng,2019nian12yueshi,yonghuzhanduzengzhangzhizuigaodian,wei20.9%。

彩票平台yiqingqijian,qizhandumingxianxiajiang,3yuekaishifandan,4yueyijibenfandandaogaoyuquniantongqideshuiping。shishishang,xunsufandandebeihou,shiyonghubingweizhangqiyangcheng“zaijiazuofan”dexiguan;yeyinweizhiqiande“landuoguanxing”,dangyiqinghaozhuan、xiaoqufangxingzhihou,yonghuzhanducaihuixunsufandan。bingqiedangzhenggejingjihuanjingfusuqingkuanggenghaozhihou,suizhekezhipeishourudetisheng。zheizhongfandanhuigengweimingxian。

zhengyinweiyonghuzhandudetisheng,meituandeyonghuhuoyueshujucainengzaicihouchanshengqiangyuelemedefandanlidu。(zhengrucaipiaopingtaizaidiyibufendefenxi)

xinguanbingduweiqizhuzengzhangdonglidaleyizhencuihuaji,zheihuoxuyeshigujiashangzhangbeihoudeyuanyinzhiyi。

小结

彩票平台congcanyinwaimaiyewudeshujukan,buguanshiyonghushu、shangjiashuhaishishouru,jinglirun,doushoudaoxinguanbingduyingxiangduanqichengya。

彩票平台gengzhongyaodeshi,daodianjiulv(youqishijiulv)zuoweiqimaolidehexinzhizhu(zuijinjigejidudaodianjiulvdemaoligongxianzhijundayu57%),shouxinguanbingdudeyingxiangshijishanggengyanzhong。congcaibaokan,zheixiangyewudeshourutongbizengsuxiahuashizuikuaide。

shenzhizaiq1dianhuahuiyizhong: jiezhi3yuexiaxun,pingtaishangdejiudianxiaofeijianyeliangcaidadaociqianshuipingde50%yishang。5yue11rineizhou,caihuifudaociqianshuipingde70%yishang。

彩票平台suoyi,congduanqicaibaokan,meituanzheiyibogujiaqiangjingfandanyoudian“yaoqiguozhong”,erqiekenenghuichixujigejidu。

然而长期来看,这次疫情在竞争格局、上游商家供给、下游用户三个层面,实质强化了美团的长期竞争优势

jingzhenggejucengmian,youyumataixiaoyingdezengqiang,yijizengqianghoudechengbenguimoyouhua;

shangyoushangjiacengmian,yiqingjiasulexianshanghua,yecuihualejiegouxingbianhua,shidegongyingduangengjiafengfu;

彩票平台xiayouyonghucengmian,yonghuzhandubuhuichixushouxinguanbingduyingxiang,yonghudejinyibujiaoyuyehuoxuhuishiqizaicihoudafufandan。

suoyi,zheiboyaoqishangzhangcongzhangqilaikan,sihuyeyouqishangzhangdedicengluojisuozai。(benwenshoufataimeitiapp)

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评论(7

  • hJVKgN hJVKgN
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    meituanxiaogechengweijinnianlaichengshiyidaohuangsefengjingxiana!

    2019-05-26 14:42 via pc
  • 钛iwFbac 钛iwFbac
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    zheigejutiyaokan,houjitiandegujiashifouhuixiajiang,ruxiajiangkenengshijigouchaozuo,rububianneijiukenengjuyuzuozhepanduandeyuanyin。

    2019-05-26 12:44 via android
  • 钛amJKk4 钛amJKk4
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    neijiujixukanba。

    2019-05-26 12:37 via android
  • 钛a8IUO5 钛a8IUO5
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    ganjuemeiyouteyiqufenxidebiyao。shouruxiadieshishangyehuanjing。yiqingxiadeshourubianhuameiyoucankaojiazhi。dengq2daodianyewuhuifulezaikan。danshibubiandeshibijiaoshichangzhanyoulv。meituanzaizheifangmianyijingjianliqiyitiaoqudaohejiagedehuchenghe。elemedebutieliduxiangduiyumeituanwendingdejiageyoushibuzhiyiti。haishibimeituanguide。waimailingyumeituanyoujueduidejingzhengyoushi。

    2019-05-26 12:24 via android
  • 钛a8IUO5 钛a8IUO5
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    ganjuemeiyouteyiqufenxidebiyao。shouruxiadieshishangyehuanjing。yiqingxiadeshourubianhuameiyoucankaojiazhi。dengq2daodianyewuhuifulezaikan。danshibubiandeshibijiaoshichangzhanyoulv。meituanzaizheifangmianyijingjianliqiyitiaoqudaohejiagedehuchenghe。elemedebutieliduxiangduiyumeituanwendingdejiageyoushibuzhiyiti。haishibimeituanguide。waimailingyumeituanyoujueduidejingzhengyoushi。

    2019-05-26 12:24 via android
  • 潇澎 潇澎
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    paotuidegongsi

    2019-05-26 10:56 via android
  • kanbudong

    2019-05-26 09:52 via pc

Oh! no

ninshifouquerenyaoshanchugaitiaopinglunma?

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