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AI又来割韭菜了,280亿估值的寒武纪科创板IPO堪忧?

摘要: 科技圈儿向来瞬息万变,眼下对于陈天石和寒武纪而言,到了不争千古只争朝夕的时候了。

图片来源@视觉中国

tupianlaiyuan@shijuezhongguo

wenshuyidiancaijingbianjibu,zuozheshuliuyajie,bianjishuyanrui

2018nianchu,yanyuanlichenzaibeijingerhuanmoudidesiheyuanzhongzhaodaixianggangpengyou。haoshizhesuicheng,xiaoyuanbuda,zhejiajiuge“xiaomubiao”buchengwenti。ciyanyichu,dichanzhongjiequeyaotoufouding: “zheifangzigenbenbuzhi9yi,dingduo6000wan,erqieyoujiawushi。”

congneiyihou,youjiawushidedongxiyuelaiyueduo,wentipoduodeguochanbjiche,wurenwenjindeyixianchengshiershoufang,haiyouxuejianlenaodaixianghaozibenshichangyangmaoderengongzhinengchangshangmen。

彩票平台jiuzaijinqi,hanwujixiangshangjiaosuodijiaolezhaogushu,jihuazaikechuangbanshichangfaxing4010wangu,mujizhishao28yiyuanzijin。anzhaoqigongkaifaxinggufenzhanbigongsizonggubenhemuzijinejisuan,hanwujijizijikaichudeguzhidadaole280yiyuanrenminbi,jiejinzhengzaichouhuaganggushangshidekuangshikeji。

wentishirengongzhinenggongsizaoyibeixianqianderelangtuigaoleyijishichangdeguzhi,eryanxiazhenggezibenshichangwujin“qiandai”,baizaisuoyourengongzhinenggongsiyanqiandenantishiyaomequerjishichang“gejiucai”,yaomezuochidengsi,bijingruguozhikanbaobiaodehua,shenmeyangderengongzhinenggongsiyebuganshuozijishizhengtiaogaizuijingdezi。

彩票平台toubudegongsidouyijingmingxuanyixianle。haocheng“quandayingteer、jiaotiguge”dewave computingyijingshenqingpochan,guoneide“jutou”menrujinyeshikoudaikuaibilianganjingle,shangtangkejizhiliuzijinlianchijinanchaoyongdong,suishikenengbengpan。

科创板和港股市场可能是最后的救命稻草,二级市场投资者们正在科教兴国的催化下望眼欲穿好标的。但问题是人工智能公司要把资本市场韭菜太不当回事,恐怕也是不行的。

2019nian8yuejiushenqingganggushangshidekuangshikeji,fanfanfufu,haojilunxiaoxiledoubujianipoguapai。qikaqiaozuizhongyaodeyuanyinjiushi: guzhitaigao。erjibianshiyijingipoguapaidekechuangban“rengongzhinengdiyigu”tianzhunkeji(688003.sh),shouri55.8yuankaipanjiudafuzhendang,zhihougujiazuigaodao72.5bianyiluchuliudaole22.03,yanxiagujiayezhishiweirao25.5defaxingjiazuofuwocheng。

彩票平台shuobaile,rengongzhinenggongsizaimeideshenziguyejiabuzhuyijishichangtoujikemendehongtai,daoerjishichanggejiucaihaidekanmingyingbuying,zhangbuzhang。

说到这,再瞅瞅被上交所犀利问询280亿元估值是不是个“良心价”的寒武纪,你是命硬呢还是命硬呢?

01、冲刺“上岸 ”

bushangshi,bianchengren。zheikenengbushigexiaohua。

彩票平台liebaoquanqiuzhikubaogaoxianshi,2019nianzhongguorengongzhinengqiyederongzijinecong2018niande1484.53yiyuan,zhoujiangjiangzhi967.27yiyuan,xiajiangfudugaoda35%;rongzishuliangyecong737cijiangzhi431ci,jiangfuda41.5%。

zheiyiboxiajiangheyiwangbutongdeshi,liantouzijigoudecanglimeishayuliangle。suirandaqushiduding,danxianjinliushuinankan,yinglinenglidixiaderengongzhinengziranzaidizhujialiyebuzaishishouchongdeyatoule。ganjinshangshibianxian,buranjiudengzhedajiayiqiwanwan。

yushi,chenzheshichangshanghao,maixiangshangke,ganjinbarengongzhinenggongsimenganjinerjishichangdaijiaergu,jiushiaituishoumendezuidagongde。

yanxia,yi“cv(computer vison)sixiaolong”——shangtang、kuangshi、yitu、yuncongweidaibiaorengongzhinengtoubuqiye,junzaichoubeichongcishangshi。kuangshiyijingxianggangjiaosuodijiaolezhaogushu,gongsiguzhi40yimeiyuan;beichengwei“rongzijiqi”deshangtang,guzhigengshichaoguo70yimeiyuan;yuncongyuyituguzhixiangduijiaodi,buguoguzhiyedouchaoguo150yiyuanrenminbi。

动辄几百亿,人工智能公司的估值到底有没有收二级市场投资者的“智商税”?

yaozhidao,2018niankuangshiyingshou14.27yiyuan,jingdiaozhengjinglirun0.32yiyuan,guzhi40yimeiyuan;tianzhunkejiyingshou5.41yiyuan,2019nianjinglirun0.83yiyuan,erjishichangshizhi52.6yiyuanrenminbi。zheigeshujubijiaocaipiaopingtaibunanfaxian,rengongzhinenggongsihenkenengpubiancunzaiyierjishichangguzhi“daogua”dexianxiang。

zheipazhengshiyixiangcaiwushenheyangedegangjiaosuochichiweipifukuangshikejiguapaidezuizhuyaoyuanyin。rucibijiao,tongyang280yiyuanguzhidehanwuji,yaozaihujiaosuokechuangbanshangshishifouyehuizaoyutongyangde“linghunkaowen”ni?

2008nian,zhongkeyuanjisuansuozujian“tansuochuliqijiagouyurengongzhinengdejiaochalingyu”10renxueshutuandui,chuanglidingweiyudazaorengongzhinenglingyuhexinchuliqixinpiandehanwuji,congbeijing、zhenronglaikan,hanwujikewei“tiantingbaoman”。

作为这条快艇的“驾驶员”,公司的创始人陈天石背景颇为传奇。高中生涯期间,他将大量时间用于电子游戏世界玩乐;进入高三后只是“象征性”学习,就迈进了中科大少年班,与百度原总裁张亚勤、阿里云元人工智能首席科学家闵万里,以及自己的哥哥陈云霁成为校友。
寒武纪创始人陈天石(左)和哥哥 陈云霁(右)

hanwujichuangshirenchentianshi(zuo)hegege chenyunji(you)

zujianlingdaotuanduishi,chenbingbujihui“renrenweiqin”,gongsilingdaotuanduishichuzhongkedatongmen,qietongchuzhongkeyuanjisuansuo: zhuchiyanfagongzuodeliangjuncengjiuzhiyuhuaweibeijingyanjiusuo、huaweihaisibandaoti,xingyejingyanchaoguo20nian;liushaolifuzejishuyanjiu,youtazhudaoyanfadehanwujicambriconzhilingji,chengweiquanqiushoukuangongkaifabudezhinengxinpianzhilingji;liudaofuzhuyaoguanzhushichangbuju。suiranfenguanlingyugeyoubutong,danjishuchengweitamengongtongdeshuxing。

hanwujiqibushi,quanqiushangweijianliqichengshuderengongzhinengyingyongchangjing,yualphagorenjiduiyihaishi8nianzhihoudeshiqing,rengongzhinenghaimeiyouwanzhengde“shiyongshuomingshu”。cishihanwujiyijingkaishishexiangdicengshengjijiasu,qianzhanxingfeichangtuchu,touzijigouhuoxuyikanzhongzheiyidiancaizhongzhutouxianghanwuji。

不过,凭中科院背景和有故事的创始人团队寒武纪已经在一级市场上拿到了六轮融资,领投不乏阿里、联想创投、中信证券等明星企业机构,此时估值已然不低。其招股书被上交所问询估值相对应的能给二级市场投资人带来什么样的成长红利,似乎是一件连寒武纪自己都可能无法解释的事情。

erjishichangdejiucaimenzaizenmechongdong,bijingyeshinaxuehanqianlaitouzheixiegongside。bushisuibianyigetingqilaibucuodegushijiunengshougelede。

02、致命硬伤

彩票平台rongzihuanjingduirengongzhinenggongsizhengtibuyoushanyejiubale,pianpianhanwujizijiyeshi“shuini”debuxing。

彩票平台congqizhaogushulaikan,hanwujizhuyaoyousantiaohexinyewutiaoxian: zhongduanzhinengchuliqiip,zhuyaoyingyongzaixiaofeidianzi、wulianwanglingyu;yunduanzhinengxinpianjijiasuka,zhuyaoyingyongzaigongyou/siyouyunshujuzhongxin;bianyuanzhinengxinpianjijiasuka,zhuyaoyingyongzaizhinengzhizao、zhinengjiaju、zhihuijiaotongdenggezhongshiyongchangjing。

2017-2018nian,huaweitongguoipshouquanmoshi,jianghanwuji1a/1hfenbiezhiruqilin970/980pingtai,suijihuodehuaweimate10xilie、p20xilie、mate30xiliedengduokuanxiaoliangtupoqianwandechanpin。jiyuci,hanwujideyingshoueduyecong0.3yiyuanbiaoshengzhi2.4yiyuan,zengfudadao700%。

zhaogushuzhong,hanwujichenghuawei“gongsia”,zheiliangnianfenbiedailai0.077yiyuanhe1.14yiyuanshouru,zengfugaoda1390.5%,cong“gongsia”huodeshouruzhanzongyingshoubizhonggaoda98.34%yu97.63%。mingfuqishidejinzhubaba。

更要命的是,这两年寒武纪终端智能处理器IP板块占比总营收分别达到98.33%与99.69%,也就是说寒武纪号称的三大业务板块,另外两块业务根本就没有什么业绩贡献。彩票平台所以,短期内决定寒武纪业务发展和现金流的就只有终端智能处理器IP,说的再直接一点,除了华为的大粗腿,寒武纪恐怕不知道还能抱谁的大腿。

wentiyezhengchuzaizheili。2019nian,huaweiqilin990fangqihanwujidejiejuefangan,kaishishiyongjiyuzizhujiagoudafenqinpu。hanwujidiudiaolehuaweideshengyi,daozhigaishourukuaisuxiajiang,yingxiahua126%。

彩票平台shangjiaosuojiuciwenxunhanwuji,gongsizehuifu: ”muqianhuaweidezhifudefeiyongjinjiyuyuanyouhetong,shuangfangweidachengxindehezuo。yinci2020nianhuaweifangmianzhifudeshouquanfeihaijiangxiahua,bingqiehuaweiweilaijixucaigouhanwujiipdekenengxingjiaoxiao”,erqie”duanqineinanyituozhanyijiazaicaigouguimoshangzuyitidaigongsiadekehu。“

彩票平台yanyizhici,huaweizheigedakehusihuyijingwufawanhui,erdiudiaohuaweihaikenengyiweizhediudiaogengduozhinengshoujikehu。weiletianbukongque,hanwujijihuaquanlituijinzhinengjisuanjiqunxitongyewufazhan。

彩票平台2019nian,hanwujiweizhuhaihengqinxinquguanweihuishangwujuyuxianfengdongyixiangdajianzhinengjisuanjiqunxitong,shixian2.96yiyuanshouru,zhanzhuyingyewubizhongshangshengzhi64.91%。

来去之间,华为没再留下痕迹,随即出现疑问: 寒武纪的差异化发展能力有多强?是否有足够的技术壁垒避免被淘汰?如果产品与解决方案能够被竞争对手轻易效仿,甚至客户能够自行开发寒武纪提供的产品,这家企业何以立足?

tongnian,hanwujishixianyewuduiyunbianduanjiagoumoxingdequanmianfugai。fengcideshi,shixianxiangtongyewujiagoude,zhengshihuaweizheigehanwujicengjingdezuidakehu。huaweifabulejiyuziyandafenqijiagoudenpu,chenggongtidaihanwujijiejuefangan,tongyangshixianyunbianduanjiejuefangandequanmianbuju。

chulehuawei,yingweida、gaotongyetuichumianxiangyunbianduandechengshujiejuefangan;suiranduanqinei,gugeyuyingteerrengshiweizhongduanchuliqi,danshuangfangjunyitongguoqidong“baijiaotang”yanfaxiangmuyushougouhabana labsqidongbuju。kejianmeiyouanzhaoyunbianduanqufenyewumokuai,bushidachangshangbuneng,ershirenjiacaiganggangtengchushou。

由此可见,对芯片行业传统巨头而言,寒武纪似乎并没有什么技术壁垒可言。传统芯片厂商、竞争对手,甚至原始客户集体站在寒武纪的对面,形围剿之势,这样的情形二级市场投资者又会怎么判断呢?

03、遥遥无期的盈利

xiangbiganggushichang,kechuangbanxianranduiguapaigongsidetiaojiangengweikuansongyixie,youqishiduiqiyeyingliyaoqiubingfeizhuyaokaolvdexianzhitiaojian。danwentishi,shichangyouduoshaonaixinqukanyijiayingliwufayuqidegongsini?

zonghegartnerdengdisanfangjigoushuju,yuji2020nianrengongzhinengxinpianzaixiaofeidianzizhongduanshichang、yunshujuzhongxin、bianyuanjisuanshichangdexuqiurenghuijixuzengzhang,guimofenbiedadao25yimeiyuan、500yimeiyuan、411.4yimeiyuan。kejianhanwujidemeitiaoyewuxian,doutazailezengzhangquxianshangde。

buguoyaofankanhanwujicaiwubaobiao,kongpatouzirenhaixuyaozuoyifandexinlicaipiaopingtai: 2017-2019sannian,hanwujiyingshoufenbiewei0.08yiyuan、1.17yiyuan、4.44yiyuan,yingshoukansizhunianzengzhangdeshitoubucuo,danqiguishuputonggugudongdejinglirunwei-3.81yiyuan、-0.41yiyuan、-11.79yiyuan。

zhengdeyueduo,kuideyueduo?zhinengxinpianxingyeshizuidianxing“zibenmiji+jishumiji”xingchanye,bixutongguodaliangyanfatourubaochilingxianyoushi。jinsannian,hanwujiyanfatourufenbiewei0.299yiyuan、2.4yiyuan、5.4yiyuan,zongyingshouzhanbichaoguo100%,qieedubuduanzengzhang。zhaogushuxianshi,“weibaochijishuxianjinxingheshichangjingzhengli,gongsijiangjixujianchihuozhekuodayanfatouru”,keyiyujian,weilaihanwujidekuisunyuyanfatouruhenkenengjianghuitongbuzengzhang。

随着研发投入持续增长,亏损缺口会持续增大,对寒武纪的投入,必须坚守“长期持有,不求回报”的信念——这不是一个赚快钱的项目。一级市场赚取短线利益后撤离,二级市场只得扮演“接盘侠”的角色,恐怕投资人难以接受。

gongkaixinxixianshi,2019nianhanwujiyingshouwei4.44yiyuan,duibikuangshikeji、tianzhunkejidenggongsi,zheiyiyingshouguimobingbuda。

anzhaogongsiyewufugaidexingyekan,baokuohulianwang、yunjisuan、nengyuan、jiaoyu、jinrong、dianxin、jiaotong、yiliaodengzhongduoxingyezhinenghuashengji。keyikanchulaixingyekuaduhenda,dansihubingmeiyouxingchengqiangshidexingyeyewulingyu,zheiyeyiweizheqijingzhenglibingbuchongfen。

youyujinsannian,hanwujixiaoshoushouruzhuyaolaiziyuqianwudakehu,zhanbifenbiewei100%、99.95%、95.44%,kehujizhongdugaoguogaoyeyiweizheqiweilaiyingshouhaikenenghuichuxiandabodong。

huaweifeidanbuzaishidakehufandaobianchenglekepadeduishou。yongzhinengjisuanjiqunxitongyewutidaizhongduanzhinengchuliqiipyewu,benzhishangbuguoshi“chaidongqiang,buxiqiang”,ruguobunengyouxiaodedazaochuqiangshideyingshougongxiandian,kongpahanwujiweilaijinianderizihuifeichangfeichangfeichangdejiannan。youciyenengxiangxiangshangshirongziduiyuyanxiadehanwujijibenshangshishiguanshengside。

“hanwujidedingweishizoudulixinpiangongsi,caipiaopingtaiguangdayunjisuan、dashuju、caipiaopingtaiqichangshang,caipiaopingtaihulianwanggongsi,caipiaopingtaixingyejutou,weixiayouchangshangtigongbutongchicun、mianxiangbutongyingyongchangjingdezhongduanaichuliqiipyijifugaiinferencehetrainingdebutongchulinenglideyunduanzhinengxinpian。”duiyuweilai,qichuangshirenchentianshidaoshishifenyouxinxindaiquanbuyewudeyishuzhan,hanwujishibiniuzhuandangqianjiongjing。

只不过,全部业务舒展不知道需要多久,也不知道那个时候寒武纪是否已经上市。科技圈儿向来瞬息万变,眼下对于陈天石和寒武纪而言,到了不争千古只争朝夕的时候了。

04、结语

suiranguzhiguogao、yingliyaoyaowuqi、kehuheyewutuozhanbuli,dourangwaijieduiyuxianghanwujizheiyangdegongsiniezheyibahan,dancaipiaopingtairengrandudingrengongzhinengzheigexingyedefazhanqushishiquelide。shengxiadejiukan,sheinengshengzheweiwangle。

彩票平台anzhaojigouyuce,2018-2025nianrengongzhinengxinpianshichangjiangcong51yimeiyuan,kuaisuzengzhangzhi728yimeiyuan,nianfuhezengzhanglvdadao46.14%。zheijibenshangshengchulejuedabufenxingyedezengsu,yeyinci,rengongzhinenggongsiyiranhuishizibenshichangshouchongdebiaode。

zhishiyaochengweigongzhonggongsi、shourenzunzhongdegongsi,haixuyaoquweicunzhen,baneixiezhihuishougejiucaidegongsitaotaichuju,rangnenggouchengjiuweidadegongsiyinglailizanhezhangsheng。zheishicaipiaopingtaisuoqipande!

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